Eclipse Day Cloud Coverage Model at T-210 Hours
The first forecasts of the day have been released and the models are starting to agree: things are not looking great in Texas. As usual, we will take a look at the available models (four presently) before looking at the composite.
First, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Model:
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Link to the original content: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
The ECMWF continues to be the most pessimistic model and is now showing nearly all of the path of totality in Texas and Mexico under heavy cloud cover on eclipse day. In addition, the once optimistic forecast for Ohio and Western New York has significantly degraded. The forecast for New England has improved, however.
Global Forecast System
Link to the original content: https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
The GFS forecast, in contrast to the ECMWF, shows worsening cloud coverage over New England and Upstate New York, with continued bleakness across the remainder of the eclipse viewing zone, especially in Texas and Mazatlan.
Global Environmental Multi-Scale Model
Link to the original content: https://weather.us/model-charts/can/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
The GEM model continues to be optimistic, having upgraded its forecast in Ohio, New England, and Arkansas for eclipse day. However, it has also significantly downgraded its forecast for Texas.
Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator
Link to the original content: https://weather.us/model-charts/aus/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
ACCESS is still showing a generally negative forecast for Texas, Arkansas, and Mazatlan. Prospects have improved for parts of Indiana, Ohio, and Upstate New York, however.
Japan Meteorological Agency
No JMA model was available for T-210.
T-210 Mean Cloud Forecast and Implications
Here is the mean of the forecasts discussed above. Generally speaking, the models are still not in much agreement and -on average- are calling for partly cloud skies across the majority of the eclipse viewing area. That said, the prospects for clear weather in Texas are not good.
As I mentioned yesterday, I’m not a meteorologist; that said, as an experience eclipse chaser I still think T-210 is too far out to start making rash decisions about travel. Even if you decided to pivot travel plans, there is currently no clear-cut favorite place to head to.
T-210 Mean Cloud Forecast with Path of Totality
For quick reference, here is an approximate path of totality overlaid on the cloud coverage map.
I’ll be following up intermittently, so stay tuned for more in the coming days!
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