Eclipse Day Cloud Coverage Model at T-222 Hours
Alright, everyone: the first cloud coverage models have been released by the five major cloud predicting weather services, and -oh, boy!- do they have some wild implications for the main event on 8 April.
First, let’s take a look at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Model:
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Link to the original content: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
This map is showing heavy cloud coverage throughout Central Texas, as well as patchy-to-thick clouds across the Mississippi River Valley, Arkansas, parts of Indiana, and Maine. Even Mazatlan, Mexico, is projected to have some thick clouds. By contrast, Central and Northeast Ohio and Western New York are looking fantastic.
Global Forecast System
Link to the original content: https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
The GFS forecast, by comparison, is extremely pessimistic and shows extremely thick cloud coverage throughout most of the range of totality besides Southern Indiana, Upstate New York, and parts of New England.
Global Environmental Multi-Scale Model
Link to the original content: https://weather.us/model-charts/can/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
The GEM model is a bit more favorable than the ECMWF or GFS over Texas and in Mazatlan, showing patchy clouds throughout. This model generally concurs with the ECMWF model with regard to cloud coverage in the Mississippi River, Ohio, Upstate New York, and New England.
Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator
Link to the original content: https://weather.us/model-charts/aus/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
ACCESS is showing a comparatively pessimistic model, with heavy cloud coverage throughout most of the zone of totality. Mazatlan, Mexico, however looks relatively clear.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Link to the original content: https://weather.us/model-charts/jpn/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
The JMA has arguably the rosiest forecast overall, with much of the viewing area -save Northeast Texas, Arkansas, and parts of Mexico- having a generally cloud-free afternoon.
T-222 Mean Cloud Forecast and Implications
Above you’ll see the mean of the five forecasts discussed above. We can see the forecasts overall are pretty pessimistic about Eastern and Northern Texas, as well as Arkansas. Predictions across Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio are uneven, as they are as well in Mazatlan and Maine. Upstate New York is the primary region where the models concur there will be clear skies.
I’m not a meteorologist, but I think everyone will agree 9+ days out may be a bit premature to start making dramatic decisions about changing viewing locations.
I’ll be following up intermittently, so stay tuned for more in the coming days!
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