Eclipse Day Cloud Coverage Model at T-24 Hours
After a very cloudy morning in San Antonio, I spent the afternoon walking around the city in sunshine. Let’s hope tomorrow is much the same way.
This is probably going to be my last post of substance on this blog. With the exception of a very uncertain forecast in Texas that we’ll talk more about in a minute, I think the general cloud cover pattern for the day is set. Let’s look at some models:
T-24 Hours Mean
Links to the original content:
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
https://weather.us/model-charts/gfs-hd/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
https://weather.us/model-charts/german/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
https://weather.us/model-charts/can/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
https://weather.us/model-charts/aus/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
https://weather.us/model-charts/jpn/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
https://weather.us/model-charts/french/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
https://weather.us/model-charts/cma/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
https://weather.us/model-charts/can-regional/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
Here it is: your final cloud cover mean map.
As we’ve known for a while, it is going to be a good day in Maine and Quebec. Upstate New York -which was looking great a few days ago- is now likely to have patchy clouds. Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, and Arkansas will all require some degree of luck on eclipse day; while you may not be so lucky to have a clear moment during the three-to-four minutes of totality, you will more than likely have a chance to take a look at the partial eclipse.
Mazatlan in Mexico will suffer a similar fate, requiring some degree of luck to see totality.
As mentioned, I’ll unpack Texas’ situation later; but first, here’s the T-24 with the line of totality.
T-24 Mean with Reference Line
You can really see how delicate this forecast is going to be for folks, but the anticipation should make for an exciting day, that’s for sure!
T-24 Hours Maximum
A look at the maximum map (where yellow indicates at least one forecast calling for cloudless skies) reinforces my belief that there’s hope for nearly everyone along the line of totality…
T-24 Hours Minimum
… While the minimum map reinforces my belief that there’s still a high degree of uncertainty in the models overall.
I mentioned earlier Texas is proving to be a special case, yet again, so let’s take a look at it now:
T-24 Mean (Texas)
There is no ideal spot in Texas for eclipse viewing, I am sad to report; furthermore, it appears that -on average- the best spot in Texas for viewing (northwest of Dallas) has a predicted cloud cover of about 40% tomorrow. Not great.
But don’t give up hope yet! There is an incredible amount of uncertainty in the models which are trying to predict how clouds from Mexico will interact with those coming from the Gulf of Mexico. Yes, the whole state could be a total wash; however, if you look at the maximum model for the state, there’s still hope!
T-24 Maximum (Texas)
Eclipses are my Super Bowls and -despite the clouds- I am still super pumped to be able to see one (even if it is obscured somewhat).
If you are curious what I’ll be up to tomorrow, frankly I haven’t decided yet. There’s one final set of data that I can look at which will come out around 2300 hours U.S. Eastern Daylight Time, and this will go a long way in helping me decide where exactly in Texas I’ll be driving.
If I have cell signal where I end up tomorrow, I may do one final pre-eclipse post (without graphics, almost certainly), but if this is the last post you check up on let me wish you the best of luck and I hope you’ve found these posts useful in your decision making!
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